We argue that Bitcoin’s final quarter price action was driven predominantly by changing macro circumstances, rather than by the prospect of widespread institutional take-up in anticipation of US spot bitcoin ETF approvals.
While the price of bitcoin has had a strong run, it is cheap, oversold and its consolidation at this level owes much to a one-off supply response.
The approval of spot ETFs in the US are a game-changer for bitcoin. They legitimise investment in this new asset, and in so doing bring an addressable market monumentally larger than the current one.
This is the beginning of a new chapter for bitcoin, one in which it goes mainstream. I think it will be absolutely huge.
- Macro Bitcoin’s price has been driven by the macro. The ETF approvals have not been priced in.
- Technical Analysis High level consolidation, far from overbought
- On-Chain Value transacted continues to climb sharply, Bitcoin is now at a discount to fair value
- Conclusion Risk/reward looks extremely favourable
