Risk On – CHAINLETTER 81

Risk On – CHAINLETTER 81

Our internal risk regime indicator has moved from Neutral-Low to Risk-On. This has surprised us, but that’s the nature of models. They take away the emotion. We’re not going crazy on this development, as we consider that major challenges remain for bitcoin in...
Everything Is Deranged – CHAINLETTER 80

Everything Is Deranged – CHAINLETTER 80

Bitcoin is back at its 2021 peak and nobody can quite agree why. Around it, markets are behaving in ways that don’t fit the traditional models: bonds and gold telling opposite stories, indices propped up by passive flows, and a US$4 trillion IPO wave being...
Crypto Needs A Re-Set – CHAINLETTER 79

Crypto Needs A Re-Set – CHAINLETTER 79

Why bitcoin’s breakdown could be crypto’s most important moment. Bitcoin and most crypto prices have fallen sharply over the last few weeks. It’s hard to see how bitcoin recovers from this point. Given its dominant market share of the sector that’s clearly...
Wars Cost (Other People’s) Money – CHAINLETTER 74

Wars Cost (Other People’s) Money – CHAINLETTER 74

Bitcoin priced in gold has fallen further in this downcycle than in either of the previous two. In terms of the world’s oldest money, this is the worst crash in bitcoin’s history. It absolutely makes sense to de-risk a gold position by adding to BTC.

Wars Cost (Other People’s) Money – CHAINLETTER 74

Life After Bitcoin – CHAINLETTER 73

Bitcoin started its journey as a form of money and has angled towards becoming a tech platform. Ethereum has moved precisely in the opposite direction. That could turn out to be a more interesting proposition.