Bitcoin is back at its 2021 peak and nobody can quite agree why. Around it, markets are behaving in ways that don’t fit the traditional models: bonds and gold telling opposite stories, indices propped up by passive flows, and a US$4 trillion IPO wave being fast-tracked into the indices with the rules rewritten on the way in. Indicators everywhere are becoming deranged. We stay cautious and explain why.
Summary:
- Market: Bitcoin retraces to 2021 peak, risk model shifts to Neutral-Low; Ethereum breaks long-term range
- Macro: Commodities and bond rates tell different stories; oil abundant despite Iran conflict; money printing politically harder than it looks; Passive investing distorts capital allocation; AI capex boom flips big tech business models
- On-Chain: Long-term holders not capitulating; big wallet addresses stable; retail ETF exits continue
- Cryptoverse: Kalshi enters perps threatening HyperLiquid’s dominance; Helium’s structural failure and why World Mobile was always going to win
Read CHAINLETTER 80 here
