A look at bitcoin valuation through the lens of inverse volatility. A look at the Inverse Volatility of bitcoin and gold suggests to us that in relative terms bitcoin is massively undervalued. With gold at US$3,881/oz, bitcoin should be around US$650,000, a five-fold increase from here. Even if you disagree with the detail, that’s a huge margin of safety. Take a look at the calculations and let us know what you think.
In the short term there are a couple of things that urge us to tactically rein in our bullishness, not least that there is so much complacency in markets, at least as defined by volatility. Furthermore, the dollar has just sharply strengthened – should we be nervous about liquidity conditions?
We’re getting to the end of a consolidation period that is similar to previous episodes in the current bitcoin bull market.