I should go away more often. Bitcoin has made good progress this week, ascending at a considerably smoother rate than yours truly on a bicycle in the Alps. The set-up (for bitcoin) looks highly promising for the year end.

A look at the Inverse Volatility of bitcoin and gold suggests to us that in relative terms bitcoin is massively undervalued. With gold at US$3,881/oz, bitcoin should be around US$650,000, a five-fold increase from here. Even if you disagree with the detail, that’s a huge margin of safety. Take a look at the calculations and let us know what you think.

There’s an ongoing and energetic debate about the core bitcoin software, which reaches into the heart of bitcoin’s identity. In Core vs Knots we attempt to shed some light onto a debate which has further to run.

The emergence of Aster and its whirlwind demolition of Hyperledger’s perp trading market share is a case study of the almost complete absence of moats in most parts of the crypto universe. It makes crypto a highly volatile and difficult market to trade -one that probably shouldn’t be tried at home, although it doesn’t stop millions trying.

But then again, it’s only by stepping on a rotten branch that you find out about rotten branches.

Summary

• Technical: bitcoin breaks above key level, BNB shows strength
• Valuation: the fall in bitcoin’s historic volatility relative to gold’s historic volatility suggests it should be US$650,000
• On-Chain: Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin Knots
• Decentralised Disrupters: Aster’s rise and Hype’s fall, Tradfi embraces crypto