Research archive
Bitcoin’s Moment of Weakness – CHAINLETTER 70
After a disappointing year for bitcoin we’re at a point where to be a buyer you need conviction in the long term story. Traders are heading for the door. We utterly retain that conviction. But we’re conscious that we have to unravel the reasons behind the recent...
The AWS Outage: A Wake-Up Call for Digital Resilience
In this note, we consider the impact of the recent AWS outage and what it revealed about the balance between resilience and reliance in the digital age. Some parts of crypto held firm, while others faltered, offering a useful snapshot of how far the sector has come,...
Bitcoin Is A Long Term Buy – Chainletter 68
There’s a strong two-way pull in the bitcoin market at the moment. For those wanting long term capital appreciation, however, these are the rare moments to get involved. The technical picture tells us that a lot of caution has already been built into the price....
Crypto Crumble
Last night the bottom fell out of the crypto market. The trigger seems to have be a renewed round of punitive trade tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on China. Read our initial...
You Can Have Bitcoin ETNs, But You Can’t – CHAINLETTER 67
On the 5th anniversary of the original banning of bitcoin ETFs in the UK, and despite the promises, it seems we’ve hardly advanced at all. Technical Bitcoin gently grinds higher to a new high. US$650,000 bitcoin fair valuation as volatility remains subdued. Macro You...
Binance – The Everything Ecosystem
Executive Summary BNB, the native token of BNB Chain, has reinforced its position as one of the top-performing assets in crypto, reaching an all-time high of $1,210 on October 6th, 2025 with a fully diluted market cap of US$168.6 billion. Its growth is underpinned by...
Bitcoin US$650,000 – CHAINLETTER 66
A look at bitcoin valuation through the lens of inverse volatility. A look at the Inverse Volatility of bitcoin and gold suggests to us that in relative terms bitcoin is massively undervalued. With gold at US$3,881/oz, bitcoin should be around US$650,000, a five-fold increase from here. Even if you disagree with the detail, that’s a huge margin of safety. Take a look at the calculations and let us know what you think.
Crypto Consolidates as Macro Clouds Loom
Check out the latest edition of Chainletter, where we cover: Technical: bitcoin solid in a range, gold breaks out, Ethereum’s key test On-Chain: Ethereum mainnet strength, Layer 2s assistance Macro: rising debt and falling liquidity, inflation latest Decentralised...
Tron – Stablecoin Powerhouse Under Pressure
Tron looks to navigate this high-growth sector as new challenges arise in 2025. We remain impressed by the evolution of Tron as a stablecoin leader. Its track record is solid but could be under threat. In this note, Jake and Ali take a detailed look at this stablecoin...
Is Ethereum Money?
The debate will go some way to determining whether this rally continues In this note we will examine why ETH has underperformed BTC, what has changed and what the path forward might look like. We ask what constitutes “money” and consider whether ETH has the...
Too Quiet Out There – CHAINLETTER 63
In the short term there are a couple of things that urge us to tactically rein in our bullishness, not least that there is so much complacency in markets, at least as defined by volatility. Furthermore, the dollar has just sharply strengthened – should we be nervous about liquidity conditions?
Higher Price, Lower Volatility – CHAINLETTER 62
As predicted in the last edition, bitcoin has broken to a new high. The volcano erupted once again. For good reason: new regulation in the USA will enable wealth management and traditional finance to engage and invest in this new asset class. The importance of this...