Research archive
All Change In China – CHAINLETTER 41
It is only a matter of time before the high-level consolidation in the bitcoin price comes to an end.
The Crypto Volcano Is About To Explode – CHAINLETTER 40
We enter a traditionally upbeat season for risk assets and crypto in particular. Everything is aligning as we have long predicted, and we unashamedly stick to our bullish view. The recent move higher has been triggered by easing policies in the world’s two largest...
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Poised For Action – CHAINLETTER 39
We look at how gold and bitcoin have been behaving and assert that the recent misalignment is temporary
The Confusing Battle For Freedom – CHAINLETTER 38
Price action as we go into Autumn remains subdued. We explore some signs of life and revisit the important drivers.
Bitcoin Supply/Demand Dynamics Re-examined – CHAINLETTER 37
The crypto market feels nervous and unloved, but this is the consequence of an overshoot at the start of the year. It’s classic that attention is wandering just as it gets interesting.
Bitcoin Falls Sharply – CHAINLETTER FLASH NOTE
The crypto market has sharply corrected over the weekend. Our latest CHAINLETTER anticipated a tricky month, but this moves feels like a major over-reaction. There are some technical reasons why the market is particularly vulnerable at this point, but they are all...
Bitcoin’s Big Test – CHAINLETTER 36
In my days as an Asian equity fund manager, several summer holidays were marmalised by big dislocations in markets. 2024 is starting to look at bit like those grim months in 2008, 2011 and 2015. In this edition we examine some of the reasons. At the core is a slowing...
The Summer Lull – CHAINLETTER 35
The bitcoin price is back in a range but there’s a lake of activity bubbling away. We see little in any of our analysis that undermines our belief that there will be a strong end to the year. The technical set-up is consistent with previous cycle behaviour and the...
Bitcoin In A World Of Political Fragmentation – CHAINLETTER 34
The UK General Election will starkly illustrate the scale of societal division. The role of a bloated State in setting us on this path is largely ignored. Government over-reach can be traced to financial ill-discipline and the egregious accumulation of peacetime debt,...
Bear Market Or Bear Trap – CHAINLETTER 33
Bitcoin and Ethereum have remained rangebound over the last fortnight, but elsewhere the crypto market has been having a tough time. Is this the start of a bear market, or is it a bear trap, designed to shake out weaker holders and present an opportunity to those with...
Bitcoin Poised To Break Out Again – CHAINLETTER 32
Everything we see now – technical, political, on chain, regulation – supports the view that the risk remains to the upside.