Research archive
Crypto is at the Start of a New Bull Market – CHAINLETTER 83
Four years ago I embarked on a round of fund marketing. The price of bitcoin was in the low $20,000s, crypto hedge funds and exchanges had blown up, and Sam Bankman Fried was on his way to the slammer. It seemed clear to me that the bad news was priced in, and so I...
Crypto Comes Back to Life – CHAINLETTER 82
Summary Market: The market is basing; Strategy’s selling settles nerves, but is “less bad” rather than good; we’re at the bottom of the four-year cycle; CLARITY Act remains a key catalyst; Robinhood Chain launches on Ethereum; ETH price target US$12,250...
GEODNET: The Rails For Physical AI
Executive Summary GEODNET is the world's largest RTK network, a system of ground stations that corrects ordinary satellite GPS signals down to centimetre-level accuracy, essential for the autonomous machines that cannot navigate on the metre-level errors an unaided...
Technical Risk Assessment on Blockchain Networks – OpenZeppelin
Executive Summary Purpose and Audience This report provides a structured, side-by-side risk assessment of six blockchain networks: Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain (BSC), XRP Ledger (XRPL), TRON, Solana, and the Canton Network. It is written for policymakers, supervisory...
Risk On – CHAINLETTER 81
Our internal risk regime indicator has moved from Neutral-Low to Risk-On. This has surprised us, but that’s the nature of models. They take away the emotion. We’re not going crazy on this development, as we consider that major challenges remain for bitcoin in...
Everything Is Deranged – CHAINLETTER 80
Bitcoin is back at its 2021 peak and nobody can quite agree why. Around it, markets are behaving in ways that don’t fit the traditional models: bonds and gold telling opposite stories, indices propped up by passive flows, and a US$4 trillion IPO wave being...
Crypto Needs A Re-Set – CHAINLETTER 79
Why bitcoin's breakdown could be crypto's most important moment. Bitcoin and most crypto prices have fallen sharply over the last few weeks. It’s hard to see how bitcoin recovers from this point. Given its dominant market share of the sector that’s clearly a problem...
What Are Crypto Tokens?
Executive Summary The central question this report addresses is one we have heard repeatedly since publishing History Doesn't Repeat, But It Rhymes. What exactly do you own when you buy a crypto token? Most investors assume the answer is that token ownership confers...
Will The Crypto Rally Peter Out? – CHAINLETTER 78
In this edition: Market: Bitcoin rallies to an important level - for several reasons we are nervous. Global Liquidity indicators are flashing warning signs and volatility has collapsed. On-Chain: Bitcoin transactions pick up, ETH underperforms, the altcoin rally is...
Doctor Bitcoin? – CHAINLETTER 77
In today’s note: In a hyper-financialised world, is bitcoin a lead indicator of global liquidity conditions? US$74,500 - a massive level for bitcoin The Technology of War - Guns vs Spears Pause for Effect - the ceasefire as a prelude to the final act? - are markets...
Bad Internals – CHAINLETTER 76
Summary We discuss the lacklustre performance and declining activity of Bitcoin. Diminishing transaction fees continue to pose a long term threat to miner rewards, especially with the halving only two years away. The only buyers seem to be the progeny of Wall Street...
Crypto Outperforms At A Time Of Intense Market Risk – CHAINLETTER 75
Crypto has held up remarkably well during a period of elevated financial and geopolitical risk. We explore potential reasons behind this, and are reminded of the value of sound money in a fragmented world. MARKET UPDATE Crypto outperforms in a risk-off environment...