Research archive
Technical Risk Assessment on Blockchain Networks – OpenZeppelin
Executive Summary Purpose and Audience This report provides a structured, side-by-side risk assessment of six blockchain networks: Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain (BSC), XRP Ledger (XRPL), TRON, Solana, and the Canton Network. It is written for policymakers, supervisory...
Risk On – CHAINLETTER 81
Our internal risk regime indicator has moved from Neutral-Low to Risk-On. This has surprised us, but that’s the nature of models. They take away the emotion. We’re not going crazy on this development, as we consider that major challenges remain for bitcoin in...
Everything Is Deranged – CHAINLETTER 80
Bitcoin is back at its 2021 peak and nobody can quite agree why. Around it, markets are behaving in ways that don’t fit the traditional models: bonds and gold telling opposite stories, indices propped up by passive flows, and a US$4 trillion IPO wave being...
Crypto Needs A Re-Set – CHAINLETTER 79
Why bitcoin's breakdown could be crypto's most important moment. Bitcoin and most crypto prices have fallen sharply over the last few weeks. It’s hard to see how bitcoin recovers from this point. Given its dominant market share of the sector that’s clearly a problem...
What Are Crypto Tokens?
Executive Summary The central question this report addresses is one we have heard repeatedly since publishing History Doesn't Repeat, But It Rhymes. What exactly do you own when you buy a crypto token? Most investors assume the answer is that token ownership confers...
Will The Crypto Rally Peter Out? – CHAINLETTER 78
In this edition: Market: Bitcoin rallies to an important level - for several reasons we are nervous. Global Liquidity indicators are flashing warning signs and volatility has collapsed. On-Chain: Bitcoin transactions pick up, ETH underperforms, the altcoin rally is...
Doctor Bitcoin? – CHAINLETTER 77
In today’s note: In a hyper-financialised world, is bitcoin a lead indicator of global liquidity conditions? US$74,500 - a massive level for bitcoin The Technology of War - Guns vs Spears Pause for Effect - the ceasefire as a prelude to the final act? - are markets...
Bad Internals – CHAINLETTER 76
Summary We discuss the lacklustre performance and declining activity of Bitcoin. Diminishing transaction fees continue to pose a long term threat to miner rewards, especially with the halving only two years away. The only buyers seem to be the progeny of Wall Street...
Crypto Outperforms At A Time Of Intense Market Risk – CHAINLETTER 75
Crypto has held up remarkably well during a period of elevated financial and geopolitical risk. We explore potential reasons behind this, and are reminded of the value of sound money in a fragmented world. MARKET UPDATE Crypto outperforms in a risk-off environment...
History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes: The Case for Crypto’s Re-Rating
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The most important investment opportunities in the history of technology have shared a common feature: the market's refusal to price the operational reality of a business during the period when that reality was most clearly pointing toward its...
World Mobile – The Decentralised Telecommunications Platform
Executive Summary World Mobile is a decentralised telecommunications platform built on a simple insight: the reason half the world lacks internet access isn't a technology problem, it's a business model problem. Traditional telcos can't make the unit economics of...
Wars Cost (Other People’s) Money – CHAINLETTER 74
Bitcoin priced in gold has fallen further in this downcycle than in either of the previous two. In terms of the world’s oldest money, this is the worst crash in bitcoin’s history. It absolutely makes sense to de-risk a gold position by adding to BTC.