Research archive
What Are Crypto Tokens?
Executive Summary The central question this report addresses is one we have heard repeatedly since publishing History Doesn't Repeat, But It Rhymes. What exactly do you own when you buy a crypto token? Most investors assume the answer is that token ownership confers...
Will The Crypto Rally Peter Out? – CHAINLETTER 78
In this edition: Market: Bitcoin rallies to an important level - for several reasons we are nervous. Global Liquidity indicators are flashing warning signs and volatility has collapsed. On-Chain: Bitcoin transactions pick up, ETH underperforms, the altcoin rally is...
Doctor Bitcoin? – CHAINLETTER 77
In today’s note: In a hyper-financialised world, is bitcoin a lead indicator of global liquidity conditions? US$74,500 - a massive level for bitcoin The Technology of War - Guns vs Spears Pause for Effect - the ceasefire as a prelude to the final act? - are markets...
Bad Internals – CHAINLETTER 76
Summary We discuss the lacklustre performance and declining activity of Bitcoin. Diminishing transaction fees continue to pose a long term threat to miner rewards, especially with the halving only two years away. The only buyers seem to be the progeny of Wall Street...
Crypto Outperforms At A Time Of Intense Market Risk – CHAINLETTER 75
Crypto has held up remarkably well during a period of elevated financial and geopolitical risk. We explore potential reasons behind this, and are reminded of the value of sound money in a fragmented world. MARKET UPDATE Crypto outperforms in a risk-off environment...
History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes: The Case for Crypto’s Re-Rating
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The most important investment opportunities in the history of technology have shared a common feature: the market's refusal to price the operational reality of a business during the period when that reality was most clearly pointing toward its...
World Mobile – The Decentralised Telecommunications Platform
Executive Summary World Mobile is a decentralised telecommunications platform built on a simple insight: the reason half the world lacks internet access isn't a technology problem, it's a business model problem. Traditional telcos can't make the unit economics of...
Wars Cost (Other People’s) Money – CHAINLETTER 74
Bitcoin priced in gold has fallen further in this downcycle than in either of the previous two. In terms of the world’s oldest money, this is the worst crash in bitcoin’s history. It absolutely makes sense to de-risk a gold position by adding to BTC.
Life After Bitcoin – CHAINLETTER 73
Bitcoin started its journey as a form of money and has angled towards becoming a tech platform. Ethereum has moved precisely in the opposite direction. That could turn out to be a more interesting proposition.
The Future of Digital Assets
We have radically altered our view of bitcoin. Events and developments over the last eight months have highlighted fragilities that we once considered ephemeral. The next few months could be highly problematic. Details are in this note. All is far from lost for...
Bitcoin Isn’t Working
A discussion of why bitcoin's incorrect categorisation as "digital gold" is turning out to be highly problematic. The recent, sudden and unexpected underperformance of bitcoin, not just relative to the broad world of other financial assets but also against other...
Opportunity in Despair – CHAINLETTER 72
We reiterate our view that we are scraping the lows of this bitcoin cycle. Regulatory structures are being put in place for a tokenisation revolution, and the smashed up altcoin world is finally offering up some bargains. Wishing you a wonderful 2026. Technical: Gold...