Research archive
Price Dispersion In A Risk Off Market – CHAINLETTER 88
Summary Market Remain Risk Off as crypto stumbles; price dispersion suggests a maturing market. On-Chain Institutional adoption…really? Identifying demand and supply drivers in bitcoin and Ethereum CryptoVerse Updates on NEAR, GEODNET, SKY and FLUID… while...
Risk Off – CHAINLETTER 87
Summary Market Our “Risk Regime” model moves to “Risk-Off” Macro Things to keep in mind: rising bond yields, stronger dollar, spike in the MOVE Index – but little evidence of excess speculation; vigilant rather than panicked [button...
The Crypto Recovery Continues – CHAINLETTER 86
Summary Market: Bad news is good news, crypto rallies as the CLARITY Act fails On-Chain: Ethereum active addresses continue growing, at the expense of fees CryptoVerse: SEC and CFTC step into the regulatory vacuum, Circle launches Arc, India and Japan explore...
The Sky Is Not Falling On Our Heads – CHAINLETTER 85
We’ve been in a period of consolidation following the mid-August bounce. That’s to be expected, but we remain very constructive as we head into year end. This is because the news on tokenisation of assets remains unrelentingly bullish. In the macro section, we look at...
Nervous August – CHAINLETTER 84
Market Volatility has collapsed, what next? Are crypto equities indicating that sentiment is improving? Short term holders remain underwater. On-Chain Fees and transactions on the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks Cryptoverse World Mobile launches in the Philippines;...
Crypto is at the Start of a New Bull Market – CHAINLETTER 83
Four years ago I embarked on a round of fund marketing. The price of bitcoin was in the low $20,000s, crypto hedge funds and exchanges had blown up, and Sam Bankman Fried was on his way to the slammer. It seemed clear to me that the bad news was priced in, and so I...
GEODNET: The Rails For Physical AI
Executive Summary GEODNET is the world's largest RTK network, a system of ground stations that corrects ordinary satellite GPS signals down to centimetre-level accuracy, essential for the autonomous machines that cannot navigate on the metre-level errors an unaided...
Crypto Comes Back to Life – CHAINLETTER 82
Summary Market: The market is basing; Strategy’s selling settles nerves, but is “less bad” rather than good; we’re at the bottom of the four-year cycle; CLARITY Act remains a key catalyst; Robinhood Chain launches on Ethereum; ETH price target US$12,250...
Technical Risk Assessment on Blockchain Networks – OpenZeppelin
Executive Summary Purpose and Audience This report provides a structured, side-by-side risk assessment of six blockchain networks: Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain (BSC), XRP Ledger (XRPL), TRON, Solana, and the Canton Network. It is written for policymakers, supervisory...
Risk On – CHAINLETTER 81
Our internal risk regime indicator has moved from Neutral-Low to Risk-On. This has surprised us, but that’s the nature of models. They take away the emotion. We’re not going crazy on this development, as we consider that major challenges remain for bitcoin in...
Everything Is Deranged – CHAINLETTER 80
Bitcoin is back at its 2021 peak and nobody can quite agree why. Around it, markets are behaving in ways that don’t fit the traditional models: bonds and gold telling opposite stories, indices propped up by passive flows, and a US$4 trillion IPO wave being...
Crypto Needs A Re-Set – CHAINLETTER 79
Why bitcoin's breakdown could be crypto's most important moment. Bitcoin and most crypto prices have fallen sharply over the last few weeks. It’s hard to see how bitcoin recovers from this point. Given its dominant market share of the sector that’s clearly a problem...